|Traffic Forecasting on Rural
Highways Employing Urban Transportation Models.
by Surachai Srilenawat (1991) ;Master degree thesis.*(The Full Text
view in Thai Language only)*.
The aim of this
research is to develop traffic forecasting process on rural highways employing urban
transportation models : travel demand model represented by trip matrix and traffic
The study area
cover the whole country and divided into 73 zones by boundary of the provinces. Highway
network is represented by node-link system corresponing to DOH's control sections. Base
year trip matrix is estimated from traffic volume counts employing matrix estimation by
maximum entropy method and test for validation by the assignment model. Trip generation
model has been develoded for testing 2 methods : trip end model by multiple regression and
growth factor method.
Results of the
study indicated that trip end model is not suitable for this case since socio-economic
factor of the provinces alone can not explain traffic growth very well. Thus, growth
factor model is used. The concept of the model is that, the growth rate of trip end is
proportion to growth rate of socio-economic variables within and among regions :
poputation, gross provincial product, vehicle registration and transportation and
communication cost. The growth is related to trips by the use of elasticity index. Future
traffic volume on highway network is carry out by traffic assignment process using
From the results of
this study and comparison to other studies, it was found that traffic forecasting process
by this method is also suitable for the regional area. The process is simple since highway
network was already develoded in node-link system and socio-economic data for each zone
has already been collected by related government agencies. However, long term prediction
should be under carefully judged by transport planners.