Thesis 18

Traffic Forecasting on Rural Highways Employing Urban Transportation Models.

by Surachai Srilenawat  (1991) ;Master degree thesis.*(The Full Text view in Thai Language only)*.


         The aim of this research is to develop traffic forecasting process on rural highways employing urban transportation models : travel demand model represented by trip matrix and traffic assignment model.

         The study area cover the whole country and divided into 73 zones by boundary of the provinces. Highway network is represented by node-link system corresponing to DOH's control sections. Base year trip matrix is estimated from traffic volume counts employing matrix estimation by maximum entropy method and test for validation by the assignment model. Trip generation model has been develoded for testing 2 methods : trip end model by multiple regression and growth factor method.

         Results of the study indicated that trip end model is not suitable for this case since socio-economic factor of the provinces alone can not explain traffic growth very well. Thus, growth factor model is used. The concept of the model is that, the growth rate of trip end is proportion to growth rate of socio-economic variables within and among regions : poputation, gross provincial product, vehicle registration and transportation and communication cost. The growth is related to trips by the use of elasticity index. Future traffic volume on highway network is carry out by traffic assignment process using equilibrium technique.

         From the results of this study and comparison to other studies, it was found that traffic forecasting process by this method is also suitable for the regional area. The process is simple since highway network was already develoded in node-link system and socio-economic data for each zone has already been collected by related government agencies. However, long term prediction should be under carefully judged by transport planners.

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